ehsnils Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 Not just Subaru though, this hits everyone. DETROIT (AP) — New vehicles sold in the U.S. will have to average at least 40 miles per gallon of gasoline in 2026, up from about 28 mpg, under new federal rules unveiled Friday that undo a rollback of standards enacted under President Donald Trump. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said its new fuel economy requirements are the strongest to date and the maximum the industry can achieve over the time period. They will reduce gasoline consumption by more than 220 billion gallons over the life of vehicles, compared with the Trump standards. https://apnews.com/article/climate-business-donald-trump-united-states-environment-f46e6892e95d83a41f75b9d56edadbda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boxkita Posted April 3, 2022 Share Posted April 3, 2022 (edited) https://www.nhtsa.gov/laws-regulations/corporate-average-fuel-economy March 31, 2022: NHTSA Finalizes CAFE Standards for MYs 2024-2026 After reviewing the tens of thousands of public comments submitted on NHTSA’s August 2021 Proposal for MYs 2024-2026 CAFE Standards and accompanying Draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement, NHTSA finalizes CAFE Standards for MYs 2024-2026. The final rule establishes standards that would require an industry-wide fleet average of approximately 49 mpg for passenger cars and light trucks in model year 2026, by increasing fuel efficiency by 8% annually for model years 2024 and 2025, and 10% annually for model year 2026 light pickups 2026 minimum is 27mpg. Edited April 3, 2022 by boxkita Build my car Boxkita Track days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 Let's get ready for the penalty boxes. It's that or the trade off will be the complex hybrid drivetrains and other crap, etc. Or EVs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pleides Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 There is absolutely zero way this happens. Even with formula one level technology to produce basically zero friction inside of an engine, crazy fuel economy can only be done on ICE engines without hybridization at a tremendous expense, that expense being reliability. Either way you look at it, manufacturers will dance around it for as long as possible, but we're gonna see things become hybrids more than ever in the coming 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boxkita Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 Expect the power distribution sector to completely nose dive if that happens. Also this is for new vehicles. If the used car market is hot now, in 5 years it'll be insane. Build my car Boxkita Track days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEE-OTTO Posted May 6, 2022 Share Posted May 6, 2022 The most popular vehicle in America is a V8 Pickup truck we clearly dont care about MPG and we don't stop buying gas or there hasn't been a price we stop buying it yet. My biggest gripe about the EV wave is the good looking ones cost $$$$$$ or they dont cost $$$$$ but they look terrible. Price aside if it looks like shit (all these Mach-E/Tesla clone cars) most will pass, most of the folks like me. The new car buyers aren't us, they truly want a gadget vs performance/styling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xt2005bonbon Posted May 6, 2022 Share Posted May 6, 2022 The WRX will be caput with these mpg standards . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boxkita Posted May 6, 2022 Share Posted May 6, 2022 When the sub $30k tesla became $50+, any chance of electric cars replacing gas cars took a hit. Build my car Boxkita Track days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xt2005bonbon Posted May 6, 2022 Share Posted May 6, 2022 Also, I guess Subaru was probably expecting something like this, which may have affected their decision in killing the next ICE STI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dgoodhue Posted May 8, 2022 Share Posted May 8, 2022 My guess is that it gets push back from manufacturers and is delayed. Manufacturers can't just miracously produce a entire line up of new vehicles in 4 years to meet those requirements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ehsnils Posted May 9, 2022 Author Share Posted May 9, 2022 My guess is that it gets push back from manufacturers and is delayed. Manufacturers can't just miracously produce a entire line up of new vehicles in 4 years to meet those requirements. That's why everyone is racing to make electric cars now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dgoodhue Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 Yes, electrification will be one major way that manufacturers meets the requirements, the other will likely be with lighter weight materials. Beyond the fact that the US power grid can not handle 50% electrification and manufacturers may not have the battery manufacturing capacity for that. It takes 3 years for a manufacturer to redesign a vehicle. 2026 is 3 years 7 months away. Even if the deadline is December 2026 that is 4.5 years away. The Impreza was due for a redesign for the 2022 model and probably was delayed to the pandemic. The new model design is mostly done at this point. The timeline of this requirement is probably absolute the worst case for Subaru. Do you think the new Impreza have 40mpg average when the current model is 28/36 or about 32mpg? Very unlikely. The Solterra has a base price of $45k, Subaru can't just stick the Solterra drivetrain in the Impreza and expect people to pay mid to high 30's for a Impreza. Honda Civic and Toyota Corolla will destroy Impreza sales if they are selling $25k models. (Toyota with its Hybrids might not be the far off the average 40mpg as it is) Is Subaru going to delay and redesign the unreleased Impreza to meet the the 2026 standards? Are they going to discontinue the Impreza and just sell the SUV variations? For the SUV Subaru is probably not that bad off meeting 28mpg requirement for SUVs. Between the Solterra and likely other electric versions or hybrid electrics that they may roll out for the Outback and Ascent models, Subaru may have already been on track with next generation design path to meet 28mpg average as it is. There might be a market for the electric Legacy, but I am not sure the sales volume supports it. This might be the nail in the coffin for the Legacy and if not there is a good chance that the 2.4 Turbo motor disappears from the Legacy. Maybe Subaru pauses for a couple years on the Legacy/Impreza production in order to make competitive model variation to meets the requirements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlia101 Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 This is "fleet average" 40mpg, at least according to the NHTSA: average across all models, not requiring each individual model to reach this. So in the past automakers have made low-volume high-mpg models to help with this, right? Badge-engineering, or making another variation or two of the hybrid and electric models to pad the lineup. Kind of hurts Subaru now that they broke the WRX out as a different model vs a trim of the Impreza, too, in this case. Maybe licensing Edit: oh wait, the NHTSA said 49mpg? Wow, yeah, no way LOL. 40.... small chance. Yeah, either pushbacks, penalties, or (maybe?) kei car imports as fluff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLlegacy Posted May 11, 2022 Share Posted May 11, 2022 Considering the standard was supposed to be 54.5mpg by 2025 in 2016 I wouldn't give any credence to the argument this can't be done in such a short-time, this has been decades in the making, automakers just slept on innovation while raking in huge profits on inefficient vehicles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pleides Posted May 11, 2022 Share Posted May 11, 2022 This is "fleet average" 40mpg, at least according to the NHTSA: average across all models, not requiring each individual model to reach this. So in the past automakers have made low-volume high-mpg models to help with this, right? Badge-engineering, or making another variation or two of the hybrid and electric models to pad the lineup. Kind of hurts Subaru now that they broke the WRX out as a different model vs a trim of the Impreza, too, in this case. Maybe licensing Edit: oh wait, the NHTSA said 49mpg? Wow, yeah, no way LOL. 40.... small chance. Yeah, either pushbacks, penalties, or (maybe?) kei car imports as fluff! Since we won't likely be seeing an S2000 ever again, if Honda made a new Beat and brought it over here, I'd buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LosMan603 Posted May 11, 2022 Share Posted May 11, 2022 Speaking only from the perspective of an American citizen and car lover, I hate to talk politics here, but let's be honest... legislation like this doesn't come from car enthusiasts... and it shouldn't... we are way to biased. I am a die hard gear head, I love gas powered cars and I hope to play with them until the day I die... That doesn't change the fact that the internal combustion engine, combined with the OUTRAGEOUS amount of vehicles people own (I own 5... so I am GUILTY of this) and add on the crazy annual mileage the average US driver clocks... gas powered cars are kind of silly... Please feel free to take a giant dump on what I just posted, but maybe there is a little truth to the idea that petrol engines are kind of an unnecessary piece of technology. Footnote: I know that you cant magically replace the petrol dependency & infrastructure here in the US. I just believe that our dino burners are going to be antiques at some point... and if they don't then it's kind of just sad for the state of motoring... my 2 cents 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 12, 2022 Share Posted May 12, 2022 That doesn't change the fact that the internal combustion engine, combined with the OUTRAGEOUS amount of vehicles people own (I own 5... so I am GUILTY of this) and add on the crazy annual mileage the average US driver clocks... gas powered cars are kind of silly... I own 8. I still haven't figured out how to drive more than one at a time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laufu Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 Do you think the new Impreza have 40mpg average when the current model is 28/36 or about 32mpg? Very unlikely. Yes, yes it can. The impreza with the e-boxer can do 19.2km/l which is equal to 45mpg. This is Subaru's hybrid system and not the toyota hybrid system found in the Crosstrek. Also it can travel a few kilometers without the gas engine but does not have plug in capability. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dgoodhue Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 Considering the standard was supposed to be 54.5mpg by 2025 in 2016 I wouldn't give any credence to the argument this can't be done in such a short-time, this has been decades in the making, automakers just slept on innovation while raking in huge profits on inefficient vehicles. The CAFE standards are using the best case scenario for fuel economy. I looked up some of the CAFE standards in 2016 it was 37.4mpg. Subaru does not have a car in the line up that actually has highway rating that high (the Impreza included). If you look at your window sticker, it has a range list on the EPA estimated. For my GT, the EPA highway rating 25mpg, but it lists a range, high end of the range is 30mpg. The 30mpg is the number that I believe they use for CAFE. The 54.5mpg standard set in 2016 maybe actually less stringent than the proposed 49mpg high and 40mg average (unless those number are going to be based on the best case as well.). The CAFE has never had an average fuel economy before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boxkita Posted May 15, 2022 Share Posted May 15, 2022 The average cafe number was backlash from consumers who could never get the advertised mpg. Well now they usually get it and more. Build my car Boxkita Track days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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