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Why Subaru is worried about its soaring sales


Picky1

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From MSN Auto:

 

"Subarus are proving to be so popular that the CEO of the Japanese automaker's parent company, whose shares have surged by 412% since 2012, is worried that it may be getting too big. His concern is understandable.

 

In the current fiscal year, sales of Subaru, which is part of Fuji Heavy Industries, skyrocketed by 13% to 724,000 and may hit 752,000 by next March and 1 million by the end of the decade, according to Bloomberg News. Earlier this year, Subaru denied a Wall Street Journal story that it was concerned about shortages.

 

One reason for Subaru's success is the quality of its cars. The U.S. Insurance Institute for Highway Safety has given the new Forrester SUV (pictured) its highest safety award, making Subaru the only automaker to receive the accolade for four straight years, according to Bloomberg News.

 

Sales of Subaru's Impreza sedans more than doubled in 2012, and the new BRZ sports car was so popular that at one point consumers had to wait eight months to buy one.

 

"We're standing at a major turning point for Subaru," Fuji Heavy Industries president Yasuyuki Yoshinaga told Bloomberg News. "Some people in the company may want to make mass-market products or cheaper cars, but is this really the right direction for Subaru? We're not a carmaker that can grow as big as Toyota. And even if we could, reaching that sort of scale would mean we'd stop being Subaru."

 

During the past quarter, Fuji Heavy Industries' profit almost tripled to a record 48.5 billion yen (about $500 million). Analysts estimate the company will finish the fiscal year in March earning more than Suzuki, which makes twice as many vehicles as Fuji Heavy Industries, Bloomberg said.

 

Still, Subaru shows no signs of slowing. It plans to invest $400 million to boost output as demand for its vehicles continues to rise. CEO Yoshinaga will likely be looking over his shoulder, though, for any problems that appear because of rising production."

 

My 2012 is a nice car and appears to be well made, but clearly some of the materials that are used do not appear to be up to the same standard that I experienced with my prior two Subaru's. Of course this can be said for a lot of car makers, as my wife's Honda is not the same as her last Honda either!

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Things goes up, things goes down. Considering the nearly desperate world of legislation aiming to decrease the fuel consumption of vehicles it's not easy to be a car manufacturer these days.

 

The cars we are offered depends on the legislation that is put in place by the people we elect, heavily tainted by "green" parties.

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I think that Subaru is worried about their soaring sales because it means expanding as a company. In order to meet demand, they need to purchase more resources (factories, dealerships, employees) to build and sell more cars. Such expansion can be risky because if the trend reverses and sales drop, it can necessitate layoffs and scaling back of these new resources, which is bad news because the company takes a loss and their reputation is damaged.

 

In addition, Subaru builds their reputation on making cars that are so well-built that owners can go many years before buying a new one. If they're still trying to keep that image (they'd better be), it can be tough to sell cars. In order to preserve the trend, Subaru will need to continue being successful in appealing to new customers, as well as the "Subaru people".

 

I think it's awesome that Subaru is experiencing such a vast scale of success, especially considering the state of other automotive manufacturers. But Yoshinaga is right - Subaru can't keep being Subaru while producing cars in Toyota-like volumes.

 

In my (extremely one-track) mind, Subaru could solve these problems by bringing the sporty versions of all their cars to the US. Despite the BRZ, Subaru's presence as a manufacturer of performance cars is a bit short of what I think it needs to be in the US. The WRX and STI are aging, the Forester XT has only a CVT, and there is currently no Legacy GT (hopefully this changes next MY). The 2015 Legacy GT (with both automatic/CVT and manual options), the 2014 Forester XT (with a manual option in addition to the CVT), and the 2015 (??) WRX and STI would sell like hot-cakes here to the enthusiast crowd and the Subaru faithful alike. Subaru would be able to appeal to the practical masses with their current lineup while appealing to the sporty masses with the performance variants.

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If/when the GT comes back, I'm curious to see if it returns with the features that were deleted on the 5th gen (such as limited slip differential, SI drive, electroluminescent gauges, foldable side mirrors with turn signal indicator lights, etc.). What I don't get is if those features are still available on the overseas version, is it really so cost prohibitive to have them available stateside?
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I don't see an LSD coming back. The VDC reacts quicker and actually allows the engine to completely manage torque splits fore and aft, and side to side including the front wheels. The Legacy isn't marketed as a track car.

 

I imagine everything else would come back as Yen/$ issue seems to have resolved itself.

 

I'd expect a 2.0 DIT CVT Legacy to replace the H6. Not sure if I'd expect a manual transmission.

[sIGPIC][/sIGPIC]

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I don't see an LSD coming back. The VDC reacts quicker and actually allows the engine to completely manage torque splits fore and aft, and side to side including the front wheels. The Legacy isn't marketed as a track car.

 

I imagine everything else would come back as Yen/$ issue seems to have resolved itself.

 

I'd expect a 2.0 DIT CVT Legacy to replace the H6. Not sure if I'd expect a manual transmission.

 

Agree with your points about the LSD vs. VDC... current implementation of both VDC & VTD with the DIT Legacy is nothing short of amazing... Perhaps the leftover love of a LSD simply comes down to many wanting to play "drift racer" and get sideways - if so then stick to your playstation and RWD cars...

 

This said however - and speaking from experience - Eyesight really gets in the way of the performance of a DIT at full chat... It is WAYYYYYYY more intrusive than ANY type of traction control... Don't expect full performance while it is switched on....

 

>>>>>>>>>>

 

DIT to replace the H6 sounds good on paper but there are still too many in the USDM whom worship at the church of "Bigger is Better"....

 

Time will tell but I think you are correct - the larger disp. motors will drop off and be replaced by more powerful, fuel efficient and modern drivetrains....

 

The DIT / CVT combo yields 25% better fuel economy & 20% better emissions than the EJ25 ever did while still producing the same HP and torque in a 20% smaller displacement package...

 

>>>>>>>>>>

 

Now to the almighty contentious subject - Look to see MT fazed out completely following the next generation of Legacy...

 

The writing is on the wall for MT's - > CVT's ( and quite good ones at that ) will replace them completely in the next 6 years - the technology being employed is improving each day & there is simply too much upside with them so they can't be ignored...

 

Just like the introduction of electronically variable valve timing the programability of this technology is going to yield very positive performance gains and reliability.....

 

I know the MT Clerics will praise the clutch and stick for centuries to come but their religion is dying and soon the only place you will find them is on the outer edges of automotivedom...

 

There will always be a place for high displacement, carbureted, manual transmission cars - in a MUSEUM....

 

>>>>>>>>>>

 

If you think that the MT lovers are upset now - Just think how they will react when we move to constant torque electric motors with a single speed and acceleration beyond their imaginations... CVT's are only the first progression towards this and so their days are numbered too...

 

I still am puzzled by 2 things I see written here...

How many posters here so religiously embrace the MT...

How many posters here report that it's almost time for a new clutch - their 3rd or 4th in many instances...............

 

>>>>>>>>>>

 

The high torque electric drive step-less 1 speed drivetrain is the future - time to let go of the old values and move on into the 21st century...

 

BTW - I am being completely honest and sincere when I say that

- if you can't get a great driving experience from anything other than a car with a MT then you aren't doing it right............:wub:

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performance gains???? Sorry but cvt's are still slower than MT. If mt do get phased by something that is technology superior and performance gains it will be by computer controlled MT.

 

The CVTs are slower because they are designed for a decent fuel consumption.

 

With different programming you can set the CVT to always have the gearing where the engine provide maximum power. I expect some tuners to end up providing that with the flick of a switch.

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performance gains???? Sorry but cvt's are still slower than MT.

 

And this of course is based on your extensive test driving of a DIT Legacy with a direct comparison it to a current gen. Legacy EJ25 MT using an accelerometer ??

 

When you've actually driven a DIT Legacy we can come back and visit this opinion again... Until then, perhaps you should preface such opinions with the disclaimer that...

 

"Although I have no practical experience whatsoever with this drivetrain I possess the strong opinion that......................":rolleyes:

 

Here is what I can tell you based on my own testing done on the same day and time using an accelerometer and with the owner on the EJ25 doing his own driving... The results were surprising even to me but were as follows...

 

  • The DIT was a minimum .4 sec faster 0-100km/h that a current gen. EJ25 MT with less than 1000kms...
  • The DIT produced 4 times within a 10th of each other on 4 consecutive runs before the IC got a bit of heat soak and performance dropped off...
  • The EJ25 produced 4 distinctly different times almost a second total difference over 4 runs with the second run the fastest ( 0.4 off ) and the 4th producing the worst ( a full second off )...
  • A 5th run by the EJ produced what appeared to be clutch slip in 2 gears...

 

Take it at face value or ignore it completely - your choice...:spin:

 

Someday perhaps you will get a chance to prove - or disprove - this for yourself...

 

Cheers,

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The CVTs are slower because they are designed for a decent fuel consumption.

 

With different programming you can set the CVT to always have the gearing where the engine provide maximum power. I expect some tuners to end up providing that with the flick of a switch.

 

Hi Ehsnils...

 

Attached please find some direct quotes from Fuji Heavy's own press release for the DIT...

 

**********

 

The Lineartronic (CVT) applied for high torque

● The new Lineartronic (CVT) was applied for higher torque of the newly developed 2.0 liter Horizontally- Opposed direct injection turbo engine. Some parts such as the torque converter and chains were modified to endure the high performance of the direct injection turbo engine.

 

● The torque distribution is controlled appropriately for sporty driving due to the VTD-AWD system (Variable Torque Distribution - AWD ) which was combined for the first time with the Lineartronic (CVT). As a result, both excellent traction performance and vehicle stability were achieved.

 

● The "SI-DRIVE" was finely tuned for the 2.0GT DIT. In case of Sport# (S#) mode, the driver can shift between 8 steps. In addition to the smooth shift change of the CVT, the driver can enjoy sportier driving by selecting the mode with direct feeling like AT or MT vehicles.

 

source: http://www.fhi.co.jp/english/news/press/2012/12_05_08e.html

 

**********

 

So the "flick of the switch" you refer to is already there in stock form with the S modes

 

Now imagine what you might do if you were a smartypants with some computer knowledge and wanted to...

  • Program a special 0-100 gearing using perhaps shorter of longer gear ratios set by the CVT ECU ( the CVT has it's own separate ECU on the DIT )
  • Program a 1/4 or 1/8th mile gearing cluster...
  • Program a highway cruising mode that selects a gear ratio to kept the motor at a pre-determined sweet-spot in the RPM range etc..,

 

The possibilities boggle the mind... But none of this is possible with a non electronically managed transmission without splitting the cases...

 

It is notable that the DIT has a Variable Torque Distribution AWD system which is not available in other Legacy's... I don't know if this too is governed by an ECU ( I think that it likely is ) but this also opens up a further area for potential exploitation and performance increases...

 

Interesting times...

 

Cheers,

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Hi Ehsnils...

 

Attached please find some direct quotes from Fuji Heavy's own press release for the DIT...

 

**********

 

The Lineartronic (CVT) applied for high torque

● The new Lineartronic (CVT) was applied for higher torque of the newly developed 2.0 liter Horizontally- Opposed direct injection turbo engine. Some parts such as the torque converter and chains were modified to endure the high performance of the direct injection turbo engine.

 

● The torque distribution is controlled appropriately for sporty driving due to the VTD-AWD system (Variable Torque Distribution - AWD ) which was combined for the first time with the Lineartronic (CVT). As a result, both excellent traction performance and vehicle stability were achieved.

 

● The "SI-DRIVE" was finely tuned for the 2.0GT DIT. In case of Sport# (S#) mode, the driver can shift between 8 steps. In addition to the smooth shift change of the CVT, the driver can enjoy sportier driving by selecting the mode with direct feeling like AT or MT vehicles.

 

source: http://www.fhi.co.jp/english/news/press/2012/12_05_08e.html

 

**********

 

So the "flick of the switch" you refer to is already there in stock form with the S modes

 

Now imagine what you might do if you were a smartypants with some computer knowledge and wanted to...

  • Program a special 0-100 gearing using perhaps shorter of longer gear ratios set by the CVT ECU ( the CVT has it's own separate ECU on the DIT )
  • Program a 1/4 or 1/8th mile gearing cluster...
  • Program a highway cruising mode that selects a gear ratio to kept the motor at a pre-determined sweet-spot in the RPM range etc..,

 

The possibilities boggle the mind... But none of this is possible with a non electronically managed transmission without splitting the cases...

 

It is notable that the DIT has a Variable Torque Distribution AWD system which is not available in other Legacy's... I don't know if this too is governed by an ECU ( I think that it likely is ) but this also opens up a further area for potential exploitation and performance increases...

 

Interesting times...

 

Cheers,

 

I'm aware that you have the S# and so on, but it's still "sport", not "race", like this:

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x3UpBKXMRto]Williams FW15C CVT - YouTube[/ame]

 

And the SI-Drive is only applicable for the gasoline engine, not the diesel. :(

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And this of course is based on your extensive test driving of a DIT Legacy with a direct comparison it to a current gen. Legacy EJ25 MT using an accelerometer ??

 

When you've actually driven a DIT Legacy we can come back and visit this opinion again... Until then, perhaps you should preface such opinions with the disclaimer that...

 

"Although I have no practical experience whatsoever with this drivetrain I possess the strong opinion that......................":rolleyes:

 

Here is what I can tell you based on my own testing done on the same day and time using an accelerometer and with the owner on the EJ25 doing his own driving... The results were surprising even to me but were as follows...

 

  • The DIT was a minimum .4 sec faster 0-100km/h that a current gen. EJ25 MT with less than 1000kms...
  • The DIT produced 4 times within a 10th of each other on 4 consecutive runs before the IC got a bit of heat soak and performance dropped off...
  • The EJ25 produced 4 distinctly different times almost a second total difference over 4 runs with the second run the fastest ( 0.4 off ) and the 4th producing the worst ( a full second off )...
  • A 5th run by the EJ produced what appeared to be clutch slip in 2 gears...

 

Take it at face value or ignore it completely - your choice...:spin:

 

Someday perhaps you will get a chance to prove - or disprove - this for yourself...

 

Cheers,

 

Using an electronic gadget on your dash or using an app on your phone is not accurate measuring device. :rolleyes: Measure time is more accurate than calculate times.

 

I can only go by what we have in the us. The US forester with the 250 hp FA DIT/high torque CVT is running 14.8-9 in the 1/4 mile. It runs atleast 0.5 seconds slower than the expect ET for a MT. The measured numbers of the US cvt is just not measuring up to what previous Subaru awd MT have achieved.

 

The US 265 hp 5th Gen LGT ran high 13 1/4 miles, which has been reproduced by members on this forum. Doesn't you DIT have 296 hp? What hp did the EJ 2.5T have? Have you brought you 2.0DIT/CVT to the track or what are the magazine test results?

 

A cvt should be easy to get reproducible results. MT time can depends on the skill of the driver. Perhaps since your friends car clutch was slipping on run 5. Either his clutch wasn't in good shape to begin with or he isn't the best skilled driver to get the acceleration out of his car.

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I just hope Subie takes the road less traveled and stays at least a bit quirky instead of full-on cookie cutter mainstream.

 

We're all in business to make money.

 

My concern would be Toyota not wanting to make a car good enough to compete with its own sporty upscale offerings (like the Lexus IS) even if the Legacy GT were to be revived. Subaru is almost at the point now where Toyota could say why even bother with the added expense - just take the AWD system and put it in a Camry!

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Considering Toyota owns almost 17% of FHI I think any help they give Subaru in the quality department is going to be to their benefit.

 

My girlfriend works for Toyota NA as an engineer and just got done helping move some of Toyota's used presses to the Legacy/OB plant in Evansville, IN. She said they're helping them improve their quality, but SOA was still very secretive about their new Legacy gen with them.

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My concern would be Toyota not wanting to make a car good enough to compete with its own sporty upscale offerings (like the Lexus IS) even if the Legacy GT were to be revived. Subaru is almost at the point now where Toyota could say why even bother with the added expense - just take the AWD system and put it in a Camry!

 

That "Camry" would need a boxer engine then.

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Subaru will/has been building new plants and will probably start "optioning up" their cars with unnecessary doo dads to boost profits.

 

That's relative to the buyer. Some people find certain things necessary that others find excessive.

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That's relative to the buyer. Some people find certain things necessary that others find excessive.

 

Duh. No kidding. ;) It's called giving the target market the elevator ride and boosting profits. As the articles mention...I hope subaru doesn't lose sight of their target market. Their philosophy, while not as crude any more....is still "Inexpensive and built to stay that way". They just don't come out and say it any more.

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Duh. No kidding. ;) It's called giving the target market the elevator ride and boosting profits. As the articles mention...I hope subaru doesn't lose sight of their target market. Their philosophy, while not as crude any more....is still "Inexpensive and built to stay that way". They just don't come out and say it any more.

 

:spin:Not really. It's actually called "Confidence in Motion" and "Love. It's what makes a Subaru a Subaru." ;)

 

Inexpensive went out the USDM window when they added AWD to their entire line up. But they are trying to stay that way in a sense. The 2014 Subaru Forester XT can now use 87 octane fuel unlike in the past but it'll just perform less than if the owner were to use 91 octane fuel (or higher).

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