How many LGT out there like mine

[max_stirling]

I have a 2005 LGT Limited Wagon 5MT BLK Ext/Taupe Int. My question is: how many Lagacys are out there just like mine? I'm not looking for an exact number, which only Subaru could produce and I've already asked with no results, but an educated ball park figure. I have found 2005 sales records published by Subaru stating that they sold 87,788 Legacys, of them, 66,106 were wagons and of them, 59,570 were in Outback trim. That leaves 6,536 Legacy non-Outback wagons sold in 2005 calendar year. Those are the hard facts.

 

Side note: I also understand that of all the Legacys stated in Subaru's 2005 sales announcement are a mix of 2004, 2005, and 2006 models, but if you consider that there were 2005 models sold in late 2004 and early 2006 as well, that 2005 calendar year sales could represent a close enough guess of all 2005 model year vehicles.

 

Based on a search of all used 2005 and 2006 Legacys for sale in Cars.com (566): 26.7% were GT, 20.8% were GT Limited, 12.75% were black, and 15.5% included the word manual in the description, but upon closer inspection, many in the result set actually had auto trannies. So the percentage of Legacys with manual transmissions is less than the above stated number, but how much less is unknown based on the searchable info.

 

With these numbers I came up with ~27 2005 LGT Limited Wagons Black 5MT. I was not able to narrow down percentages of taupe interiors.

 

6536 * 20.8% (GT Limited) * 12.75% (black ext) * 15.5% (5MT) = ~27

 

What do you think about this result? Way off? Too high? Too low? Do you have a better source of info or a larger sample to search by?

 

Thanks

[rallispec]

haha

 

you've thought about this waaaay to much. ANd i dont have the numbers to prove it - but 27 seems low for the total number of black 5MT wagons.

[Vahkil]

Yeah, 27 seems a little low. You'd be better off watching a game of roulette and take the first number that comes up as your answer. That's probably just as accurate as your study

[max_stirling]

Yeah, yeah...I know that there are probably much better things to do with my time, but I'm curious. I've found a few different sources stating 12-13% Black is about right for the auto industry.

 

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0855652.html

 

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m3012/is_1_183/ai_97176134

 

http://www.pcimag.com/CDA/Archives/68f6ca796d6a7010VgnVCM100000f932a8c0____

 

J. D. Power & Associates estimates that only 9% of all cars sold in the US have manual trannys (http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?sec=travel&res=9400E5DD173AF932A25753C1A9649C8B63). Subaru might be a little higher, but I doubt by much. I remember reading years back that even among Corvettes, manual tranny only make up 25% of sales.

 

I think the biggest unknown factor in reducing the total number of identical vehicles is the GT LIMITED, which I estimated at 1 in 5 of ALL non-Outback Legacy wagons sold. Of course, this does NOT include 2005 Black Outback XT 5MT, which represent a much larger number of sales.

[turboWagon]

I guess I am 1/27 ;-)

[OCDetails]

Try calling your subaru dealership. Save yourself the trouble of doing research in a shallow pool and have them just look it up.

[TYNY]

too much free time eh? you have to take into account that some colors were more popular and probably ordered more by dealers such as black, white, silver. then the blues. i would guess red is the rarest (also b/c it was GT exclusive)

[retslo]

Got one here.

[Beanboy]

non limited 5MT garnet red wagons FOR THE WIN

 

2005 the only year for two of the three things listed above... *sniff* *sniff*

 

And then over the last two weeks I read about two still at the dealer red 5MT wagons still on the lot...that finally sold. Someday I'd like to know how many were actually produced.

[Jeff_B]

Hey Beanboy its me you and a guy named, i think Chud. I read somewhere that there were around 1000 MT wagons made for the US, now how many of those do you think were Non-Limiteds and how many of those in Garnet? We could have one of three made like that:iam:

[Mblock66]

I don't think you can even do the calculation the way you have it. Unless you are saying that 20.87% were GT Limited and OF that 20.87%, 12.75 were black then you did the equation wrong. It might not be all that off but if 80% of the 20% GTs were actually black then your numbers would be in the 100's already. Same argument as the MT % age

 

I dont' know if I wrote that correct but you can't just keep multiplying %'s like that unless they are subsets of the previous %

[Vahkil]

mblock66- the way he did it is perfectly logical. It is assuming that the percentages are across the whole sample. Say you have 100 total cars adn the statistics say 20% are GT and 10% are black. Of the 100 cars, 20 are GT. Of the 100 cars, 10 are black. It is only logical to say then that 2 cars are both GT and black, which is like saying 100*.2*.1=2 GT blacks.

 

The major assumption in this case is the "powers that be" do not prefer a certain color for a specific trim. (like GRP and the GT)