liabaqus Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Outback & Legacy will have much better deals in fall 2016 Do you agree? I predict that Outback and Legacy will have a lot better deals in Fall 2016. Because: 1. Supply will increase dramatically. The factory currently produces 300,000 vehicles per year. Fall 2016 the factory will have capacity to produce 500,000 vehicles per year. That's a significant (67%) increase! "The Camry's departure would free up capacity of 100,000 vehicles, on top of the additional 100,000 announced today." 2. Demand will not keep up with the increase of supply. The 2017 Subaru Outback and Legacy will be the 3rd year of almost-the-same after the all-new 2015 model. The 2017 model will not have many new stuffs to attract more buyers like the 2015 model. And some buyers may choose to wait for the 2018 or even 2019 models for dramatic upgrade/improvement. 3. Weather predicts a mild winter for northeast for this winter. People may tend to care less for AWD cars like Subaru after a miler winter. There are so many other options out there. Sources: google the following articles Subaru to expand capacity by 100,000 at Indiana plant More jobs, production expected at Subaru plant Subaru To Increase US Plant's Annual Output By 100,000 To Build 7-Seat SUV How Subaru will free up production space for the hot-selling WRX/STI - Torque News Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLlegacy Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Was your previous username Hammrdown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dgoodhue Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Toyota Camry is stopping production at SIA and leaving in 2016. I haven't read if that is the model year or calendar year and I am not sure when the plant expansion will be complete. Subaru is also moving the Impreza production to the US in additon to the proposed 7 seater, which will use up some of more that capacity. Even if they do get the additional space in summer of 2016, Subaru isn't going to be able to instally produce 100k more Legacy/Outbacks; it will take a while to modify the production lines to increase the capacity. Once they have the capacity, Subaru finacial guru will estimate the demand and decides on the supply (number of cars) they are going to produce. So if they think they can sell 50K more cars, they aren't going to make 100K cars. From what I have heard, they are predicting a higher than average snow fall for the northeast this year. Upstate NY, VT, NH, ME always get hammered with snow even in mild winters. Even if it is a mild winter, I don't think anyone is going to be forgetting about the past winter anytime soon. I think this one is grasping at straws for a weak demand of Subaru cars in the NE. Anyway, I suspect that sometime in the calendar year 2017 that Outback and Legacy will be sell supplied at dealers. I just looked at true car to see what the current pricing on Legacy/Outback, they put the average around invoice price for the Legacy and Outback. A good deal on Subaru is typically 2% below invoice. Depending on the trim level this ~$400-700 below invoice. Without any additonal incentives, Dealer on average aren't going to sell the cars for much less than that amount. For instance on a base 2.5i Legacy they aren't going to sell it for $1000 under invoice, because that would be right around break even point. Dealers are in the business of making money. In spring time for before the next model year is release you might be able to buy for around 2% under invoice. I would expect better deals (and easier to negotiate) but unless Subaru starts offering incentives, I wouldn't expect much better deals. The list price could increase and offset the difference in savings. You could be waiting around for a year or two to save $500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellesedil Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 From what I have heard, they are predicting a higher than average snow fall for the northeast this year. Upstate NY, VT, NH, ME always get hammered with snow even in mild winters. Even if it is a mild winter, I don't think anyone is going to be forgetting about the past winter anytime soon. There is one way that demand in New England may have been lowered. It's for the people that had to deal with the ~100 inches of snowfall in about a month and a half and said, "F this, we're out of here" and moved out. <-------- Like this guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YeuEmMaiMai Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Subaru is already maxed out production wise, not likely that this will change significantly in the near future... aka 2016 and 2017 model years http://wardsauto.com/plants-production/subaru-capacity-crunch-600000-us-sales-feasible their max capacity is 600K and they are very close to that now total 2015 sales for Canada and the USA at the end of September was 463+K. if you just repeat sept numbers for oct-dec you wind up with about 636K cars http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2012/10/subaru-brand-sales-figures-usa-canada.html I expect Subaru to be constrained at least until 2018 model year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dgoodhue Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Subaru is already maxed out production wise, not likely that this will change significantly in the near future... aka 2016 and 2017 model years http://wardsauto.com/plants-production/subaru-capacity-crunch-600000-us-sales-feasible their max capacity is 600K and they are very close to that now total 2015 sales for Canada and the USA at the end of September was 463+K. if you just repeat sept numbers for oct-dec you wind up with about 636K cars http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2012/10/subaru-brand-sales-figures-usa-canada.html I expect Subaru to be constrained at least until 2018 model year To predict sales you can't take use a month sample and multiply it by 12. Their are time in the year when production makes changes/maintenance which affect output. Subaru sold 513K cars last year and is on pace to sell 560+K car this year. This is before adding the 100k capacity of Camry's and the plant expansion which IIRC is another 100K cars. It should put them over 750K+ capacity. We have been reading for the last couple years that Subaru has been at max capacity, but they continue to sell more cars every year. From what I understand Subaru has been able to improve efficiency most every time they shutdown a production line to increase production. I have read that some dealers think by the time if the current demand continues to increase and they make the rumored 7 seat Tribeca replacement, by the additional capacity become available that Subaru will still be just barely able to make enough cars to meet the demand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The B4 Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 why don't these threads get deleted? Can someone check the ip of the OP and find out whose alt it is? [sIGPIC][/sIGPIC] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YeuEmMaiMai Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 To predict sales you can't take use a month sample and multiply it by 12. Their are time in the year when production makes changes/maintenance which affect output. Subaru sold 513K cars last year and is on pace to sell 560+K car this year. This is before adding the 100k capacity of Camry's and the plant expansion which IIRC is another 100K cars. It should put them over 750K+ capacity. We have been reading for the last couple years that Subaru has been at max capacity, but they continue to sell more cars every year. From what I understand Subaru has been able to improve efficiency most every time they shutdown a production line to increase production. I have read that some dealers think by the time if the current demand continues to increase and they make the rumored 7 seat Tribeca replacement, by the additional capacity become available that Subaru will still be just barely able to make enough cars to meet the demand. thank you captain obvious... if you had actually taken the time to look at the link you would see that Subaru sales from 2012 onwards increase month to month at the end of the year.... so in reality my estimate is probably on the low side..... and I am also including Canadian sales as their cars are part of those production numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLlegacy Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Sure are a lot of armchair CEO's on this part of the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liabaqus Posted November 1, 2015 Author Share Posted November 1, 2015 Seems to have touched a nerve of some people who have vested interest in current Subaru sales. It is a world of freedom and everyone should be allowed to express their views. If you have counter arguments feel free to express them publicly. Threatening or manipulation is probably not the best way to suppress others opinions. Agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLlegacy Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Most of these conversations, if you will, are baseless and seem to harbor some animosity towards subaru. Being free to express yourself in no way guarantees anyone will like it or appreciate it. Subaru's demand has been in most measurable ways outpacing their supply for some time, gaining back their own production capacity will not in and of itself temper demand or increase the likelihood for incentives to sell vehicles they have no problems selling. There are many variables in production it would be unwise to assume we know all of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The B4 Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Seems to have touched a nerve of some people who have vested interest in current Subaru sales. It is a world of freedom and everyone should be allowed to express their views. If you have counter arguments feel free to express them publicly. Threatening or manipulation is probably not the best way to suppress others opinions. Agree? This is hmmrdwn. Can a mod please IP confirm? Can we please keep news and rumors a place for actual news and rumors? not hmmrdwn's anti subaru playground? [sIGPIC][/sIGPIC] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miken Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Here's my experience buying the Legacy 3.6R. The dealers did not have any 6's in stock. My regular dealer would order one, but it would be 3 months for delivery. I was able to find a 2015 to test drive, but even that was difficult. Using a buying service, I found a dealer in the Greater Washington Area that had two coming in. The dealer said that most of the 3.6's are sold before they arrive at the dealership, so I committed to buying one sight unseen. By contrast, when I got my 2006 Legacy GT, there were several in stock in December 2005. The demand seems to have increased in the past ten years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SubieDriver Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 I was at my local dealer recently, and thought I would compare the looks/features of the 2.5i vs the 3.6R. They also didn't have a single 3.6R on the lot, while having about 15 2.5i models. I'm glad it's selling well. I suppose all those who formerly bought LGTs are now buying 3.6Rs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miken Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Loved my LGT, but I'm glad I don't have to buy premium fuel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SubieDriver Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 miken, how do like the CVT? paddle shifting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miken Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 I like the CVT. It has shift points, simulating a non-CVT transmission. So far, I haven't found it different from driving my automatic LegacyGT. My friend has a 2012 Outback. When he goes up a hill, the engine will rev real high. My car seems to take the hill more like what I'm used to. I only use the paddle shifters during the break-in (which I'm almost through), when I have to drive on a highway. I use them to vary the engine speed, without changing the speed of the car. I have found that I can use them, even when the transmission is in automatic mode, allowing quick down shifts when I want, up shifting after about 15-20 seconds. I am really pleased with the way it drives after having driven the Turbo GT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SubieDriver Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Does it always have shift points? Or just when you drive more aggressively? I thought I read somewhere that gentle driving makes it true CVT, while stepping into it more gives the shift points. I tried some quick googling and couldn't find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miken Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 I've always noticed the shift points, which doesn't mean that what you said isn't true. I'm not a gentle driver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orndog Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 My 2013 does not "shift", it holds whatever rpm it deems appropriate for the speed/ acceleration I request. Except on downhills where the damn things is always "downshifting". The loaner I had when my short block was getting replaced was a 2015 and it definitely had shift points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YeuEmMaiMai Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 2014+ cars act more like an automatic.... Subaru did this due to customer feedback Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoplightAssassin Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 This is hmmrdwn. Can a mod please IP confirm? Can we please keep news and rumors a place for actual news and rumors? not hmmrdwn's anti subaru playground? When did yimy....I mean hmmrdwn go anti Subaru? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YeuEmMaiMai Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 If you are referring to me, I am not anti Subaru... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YeuEmMaiMai Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I'm just gonna leave this right here http://www.inautonews.com/subaru-is-five-years-ahead-of-its-us-sales-target they are STILL maxed out with no end in sight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hmmrdwn Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Was your previous username Hammrdown? Hahahaha you are a moron. It's not me and I've never been Antisubaru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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